The Illusion of Just Knowing

The Trap of Tribal Knowledge

A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it. Fifteen hundred years ago everybody knew the Earth was the center of the universe. Five hundred years ago, everybody knew the Earth was flat, and fifteen minutes ago, you knew that humans were alone on this planet. Imagine what you'll know tomorrow. - Agent K - MIB

Businesses often operate on intuition and ingrained assumptions—what they "just know"—rather than a data-backed understanding of their reality. The use of data to demonstrate what is actually happening in their business is the first step in creating a learning organization (as opposed to a “just knowing” one).  The haphazard acquisition of business information (tribal knowledge gained through years of service) is a passive approach to fooling yourself into believing that you truly understand the way your business operates.  Knowledge gained this way is brittle. Tribal knowledge tends to create the illusion of competence. Employees may believe they understand a concept simply because “that is just the way it works.”  This leads to a reluctance to question or explore.  Tribal knowledge is often an impediment to change.

Learning happens through curiosity and is characterized by intellectual humility, which recognizes the limits of one's current understanding.  It encourages people to dig deeper, to ask why, and to find new connections and correlations.

You Can’t Track What You Can’t Measure

While intuition and qualitative observations can provide insights, without quantifiable data, they are, at best, guesses of what is happening.  The use of metrics and statistics offers a more objective and rigorous way to assess the state of a business’s operations.  How many quotes lead to orders?  How many invoice inquiries do we get a month?

The use of metrics and statistics forces us to be objective in our assessments. It moves us beyond vague impressions and subjective opinions toward a more data-driven understanding. By quantifying the results of our operations, we can identify what is working, what doesn't, and by how much. This data allows for a more informed and efficient decision-making process.  

Furthermore, metrics enable us to track progress over time. By establishing baseline measurements and monitoring changes in key indicators, we can assess the effectiveness of our strategies and identify areas for improvement. This feedback loop is crucial for continuous validation that our processes and systems are still functioning as desired.

The Need For Experimentation

The process of observing, asking questions, and seeking answers through tests and experiments is not unique.  In business, however, this level of experimentation is often avoided.  Again, because people “just know” what you always need…. Because we’ve always done it this way.

Experimentation is the cornerstone of progress. The results of experiments provide empirical evidence that either supports or refutes the performance of an existing process or the value of a change.  In business, companies conduct market research, run A/B tests on marketing campaigns, and pilot new product features. These are all forms of experimentation aimed at understanding customer behavior, optimizing strategies, and driving innovation. Without this willingness to experiment and learn from the outcomes, businesses risk stagnation and failure.

The key is to take this willingness to experiment beyond the Marketing department into the realm of Sales and Operations.

The Scientific Method Applied

The Scientific Method provides a structured approach for integrating experimentation and metrics into a robust learning process. The Scientific Method is a systematic way of asking questions, gathering evidence, and drawing conclusions. While often associated with formal scientific research, its principles can be applied to learning in a wide range of contexts.

In scientific research, statistical analysis is essential for interpreting experimental data. Raw data alone can be noisy and difficult to interpret. Statistical methods allow researchers to identify patterns, determine the significance of their findings, and draw reliable conclusions. Without statistical rigor, it's easy to be misled by random fluctuations or biases in the data.

Conclusion

Tribal knowledge (the just knowing) is an impediment to growth.  It prevents the development of a deep understanding of the “why” and the discovery of new correlations.  It creates bottlenecks to growth in the form of people who should be adding to knowledge.  The data the business generates should be the gateway to a deeper understanding of the customer needs and business challenges.  That leads to growth.

In the late 90’s Netflix recognized the changing behaviors of its customers and their migration to streaming and DVR type services.  This allowed them to pivot their business model and create a new and profitable streaming service.  By using the techniques described in this blog, you can unlock your organization's data for new insights that will lead to increased customer satisfaction and business value.